Tuesday 25 October 2011

Has David Einhorn lost credibility by erroneous math on Green Mountain Coffee Roaster's strong growth numbers?

I suppose you are referring to Chappell's rebuttal of Einhorn's presentation, for example, http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SunTrust-A… The only thing that could reasonably be called "erroneous math" is double counting the packaging between Starbucks and GMCR. Even if true, this is a difference of 7.5 cents per cup which doesn't undermine his thesis all that much (it's significant, for sure).

Chappell's big criticism is that Einhorn uses information from the class-action lawsuit to assert that GMCR's accounting practices are misleading. Chappell doesn't even say he's wrong, just that the information he uses to come to that conclusion are out-of-date (see quote in article from Chappell on this point). The jury is out on that and, frankly, GMCR ought to straighten it out and they haven't.

If Einhorn's analysis is fals, it shouldn't be up to SunTrust to rebut it; it should be up to GMCR. What do you make of GMCR leaving the job to an equity analyst? What I make of it and what the market makes of it, is that GMCR can't rebut Einhorn's analysis becausee it is largely true.

Einhorn doesn't have axes to grind. He probably drinks Green Mountain Coffee. He only cares about getting his picks right.

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